The optimistic scenario expects that the European aviation industry will exceed the level of 2019 as early as 2023, the pessimists put the time “when everything is over” beyond 2027, and the realists say that many extraneous factors can affect the situation at any moment. This official forecast for the aviation industry was presented by experts from the European Organization for the Safety of Air Navigation (Eurocontrol).
According to them, air traffic in Europe at the beginning of 2022 was 70% of the level of 2019. Further, the optimistic forecast did not come true – there was no rapid recovery, this was prevented by restrictive measures in connection with covid, and anti-Russian “air sanctions”, which closed not only routes to and from Russia, but also created problems for long-haul transportation. As a result, in some months, the level of air traffic did not rise above 72-76% of the “pre-Covid”, but then still managed to level off. And on average, the volume of European air traffic in 2022 reached 83% of the “pre-Covid” with a total of 9.3 million flights.
As for the coming year, Eurocontrol experts presented three scenarios for the near future – until the end of the summer season 2023, and three more – for longer-term forecasts. The main unpredictable factors are the ongoing situation in Ukraine, respectively, the closed sky, as well as the current inflation and related price problems.
The optimistic scenario claims that there will be a systematic growth, and if flights reach 90% of the pre-Covid level in January, then at the start of the summer season they will already exceed the level of 2019 and amount to 102%, and by August – 105%. The pessimistic one is that in 2023, the volume of air transportation relative to the dock years will fluctuate from 80% in the off-season to 87% in the summer season. As for the most realistic, from the point of view of Eurocontrol, forecast, in the first quarter, traffic will remain at the level of 86%, and by the summer months it will grow to 95% of 2019 – but still they will not exceed the pre-COVID level.
As for the forecasts that answer the question: when everything will be over and the European aviation industry will recover, the answers are as follows. In the presented seven-year scenario from the optimists, this will happen as early as 2023, when the volumes will be 101% and will continue to grow, reaching 118% by 2027. Pessimists assure that in 2027 only 94% of the pre-Covid volumes will be reached. So far, Eurocontrol considers that the most realistic level is that in 2023 the level will be 92%, next year it will reach 98%, and already in 2025 it will exceed 101% of the pre-Covid level.
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