The worst has not yet arrived: global tourism in horror – tourists in Germany and the United States are preparing for an unprecedented price shock

The worst has not yet come: world tourism is in horror - tourists in Germany and The United States is preparing for an unprecedented price shock

“Super-heavy sanctions” that Europe imposed on Russia for a special operation in Ukraine hit the European economy itself, primarily tourism and air travel, and not only at the locomotive of the European economy – Germany, but even in the USA. And it is likely that tourism will be among the hardest hit by the poisoning: as the European press notes, “The worst has not yet come.” Although representatives of a much heavier industry are also complaining.

In Europe, it was calculated that in March the price of a barrel of oil rose to $140 and natural gas to $260. The prices for raw materials are also growing at the same pace. The price of wheat rose to 450 euros per ton on the Chicago stock market. “France, like all of Europe, wanted to punish Russia for its invasion. But the imposition of economic sanctions on an unprecedented scale caused an unpredictable shock to the markets. And the worst is yet to come,” Catherine McGregor, president of the French energy company Engie, said in a panicky statement. She is backed by her colleagues in Germany, saying that the West is importing $700 million worth of resources from Russia every day, and the reduction of Russian gas is creating a financial shock to the entire economic model of Germany. Recall that even the High Representative of the European Union (EU) for Foreign Relations and Security Policy, Josep Borrell, admitted this – he said that Europe had reached the limit of financial sanctions that could be applied against Russia.

In Asia, too, the fate of Europe is being calculated – and not only. Takahide Kiuchi, chief analyst at Nomura Research Institute (NRI), Japan's largest financial and industrial think tank, said the sanctions would trigger new inflation and price increases that hit European countries and the United States. “Sanctions will inevitably hit the Western economy as a whole: they entail the risk of a “boomerang effect” against the initiators. This is especially true for Europe. In addition, the sanctions of developed countries against Russia will only further deepen cooperation and interaction between China and Russia,” said a Japanese analyst.

As far as tourism is concerned, the sanctions have gone through the following way. First, the European aviation industry is in for a tough time with sanctions, closed skies and skyrocketing kerosene prices. The number of air travel in Europe for the week decreased by 23%, and transatlantic flights – by 13%. Including “arrived” and tourism – the losses are already being reported. Thus, the number of bookings in the Spanish Balearic Islands decreased by 40%. The resorts were counting on a successful Easter holidays and summer season – but this probably does not shine for them …

European analysts, by the way, made a detailed forecast – which of the countries suffered the most and what are the prospects. So, according to research by the analytical company ForwardKeys, only in the period from February 24 to March 2, air ticket bookings in European countries fell by 30-50%. At the same time, there was also a 33% increase in prices. The most serious drop, of course, was achieved in Ukraine, where air traffic was generally stopped. In Russia, according to analysts, ticket sales – including as part of tour packages – fell by 49%, but not at all to zero. However, high losses in other countries. According to ForwardKeys, the number of bookings in Bulgaria, Croatia, Estonia, Georgia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia also fell by 30-50% over the week. In other European countries, the decline rates are lower, but they also vary from 10 to 30%. The exception was Serbia, which refused to close the sky for Russia, as well as Belgium and Iceland. Overall, air travel in Europe is down 23% this week, while transatlantic flights from the EU are down 13%. The details of this study can be found in the article “Western sanctions against Russia torpedoed tourism in Europe: tourists began to panic.”

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