The Turkish travel newspaper Turizmguncel upset its readers with the “recession in Russia”. Such a promising statement in Turkey was made on the basis of data for the third quarter, published by Rosstat, according to which the Russian economy continues to contract for the second quarter in a row. Moreover, if in the second quarter it decreased by 4.1%, then in the third quarter the figure was 4%. Turkish sources claim that in this way the economy “entered a recession”.
Turkish tourism is extremely upset by such data from the Russian Federation, because Russia was the largest supplier of tourists to Turkey for several years, but in 2022 it dropped to second place, losing ground to the German market. However, we add that in the same Antalya, Russian tourists lagged behind the Germans in number by literally a couple of thousand people.
It must be said that in Russian sources, the view of the same situation is not so full of pessimism. Firstly, the published data turned out to be better than the preliminary estimates of the Ministry of Economic Development, which assumed a decline of 4.4% in the third quarter. Secondly, the decrease was mainly “achieved” due to the main fallen industry – wholesale trade, which decreased by 22.6%. So far, in total, according to the results of the first half of the year, the decline is estimated at 0.4% in annual terms, and the dynamics of GDP is close to the predicted trajectory of a decline of 2.9% for the current year. By the way, the Central Bank predicts that the decline in GDP will be 3-3.5% this year.
At the same time, the Ministry of Economic Development, among other things, noted “less than expected”, a reduction in tourism, as well as IT and the financial sector. And they assured of positive forecasts for the future: in 2024-2025 they promised an increase of 2.6% annually.
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